Electricity prices in liberalized markets are determined by the supply and demand for electric power, which are in turn driven by various external influences that vary strongly in time. In perfect competition, the merit order principle describes that dispatchable power plants enter the market in the order of their marginal costs to meet the residual load, i.e. the difference of load and renewable generation. Many market models implement this principle to predict electricity prices but typically require certain assumptions and simplifications. In this article, we present an explainable machine learning model for the prices on the German day-ahead market, which substantially outperforms a benchmark model based on the merit order principle. Our model is designed for the ex-post analysis of prices and thus builds on various external features. Using Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, we can disentangle the role of the different features and quantify their importance from empiric data. Load, wind and solar generation are most important, as expected, but wind power appears to affect prices stronger than solar power does. Fuel prices also rank highly and show nontrivial dependencies, including strong interactions with other features revealed by a SHAP interaction analysis. Large generation ramps are correlated with high prices, again with strong feature interactions, due to the limited flexibility of nuclear and lignite plants. Our results further contribute to model development by providing quantitative insights directly from data.

电力在不同的时间范围和法规上在各个市场上进行交易。由于更高的可再生能源渗透，短期交易变得越来越重要。在德国，盘中电价通常以独特的小时模式围绕EPEX现货市场的白天价格波动。这项工作提出了一种概率建模方法，该方法对日前合同的盘中价格差异进行了建模。该模型通过将每天的每日价格间隔的四个15分钟的间隔视为四维的关节分布，从而捕获了新兴的小时模式。使用归一化流量，即结合条件多元密度估计和概率回归的深层生成模型，从而学习了最终的多元价格差异分布。将归一化流程与选择的历史数据，高斯副群和高斯回归模型进行了比较。在不同的模型中，归一化流量最准确地识别趋势，并且预测间隔最窄。值得注意的是，归一化流是唯一识别稀有价格峰的方法。最后，这项工作讨论了不同外部影响因素的影响，并发现个人大多数因素都可以忽略不计。只有价格差异实现的直接历史和所有投入因素的组合才能显着改善预测。

现代能源系统的设计和运营受到时间依赖性和不确定参数的严重影响，例如可再生发电，负荷需求和电价。这些通常由称为场景的一组离散的实现表示。一种流行的情景生成方法使用允许场景生成的深生成模型（DGM），而无需现有的数据分布。但是，生成方案的验证很困难，目前缺乏对适当的验证方法的全面讨论。为了开始讨论，我们对能源情景生成文献中当前使用的验证方法的关键评估。特别是，我们评估基于概率密度，自动相关和功率谱密度的验证方法。此外，我们建议使用多重术后波动分析（MFDFA）作为峰，爆发和平稳等非琐碎功能的额外验证方法。作为代表性的例子，我们培养了两种可再生发电时间序列（2013年到2015年德国的Photovolataic Antialsion（VAES），以及来自德国的光伏和风的变分自动化器（VAES）和一天电费时间序列在2017年至2019年形成欧洲能源交换。我们将四种验证方法应用于历史和生成的数据，并讨论验证结果的解释以及验证方法的常见错误，陷阱和局限性。我们的评估表明，没有单一方法足够特征，但理想的验证应该包括多种方法，并且在短时间内的情况下仔细解释。

Increasingly taking place in online spaces, modern political conversations are typically perceived to be unproductively affirming -- siloed in so called ``echo chambers'' of exclusively like-minded discussants. Yet, to date we lack sufficient means to measure viewpoint diversity in conversations. To this end, in this paper, we operationalize two viewpoint metrics proposed for recommender systems and adapt them to the context of social media conversations. This is the first study to apply these two metrics (Representation and Fragmentation) to real world data and to consider the implications for online conversations specifically. We apply these measures to two topics -- daylight savings time (DST), which serves as a control, and the more politically polarized topic of immigration. We find that the diversity scores for both Fragmentation and Representation are lower for immigration than for DST. Further, we find that while pro-immigrant views receive consistent pushback on the platform, anti-immigrant views largely operate within echo chambers. We observe less severe yet similar patterns for DST. Taken together, Representation and Fragmentation paint a meaningful and important new picture of viewpoint diversity.

Data-driven modeling has become a key building block in computational science and engineering. However, data that are available in science and engineering are typically scarce, often polluted with noise and affected by measurement errors and other perturbations, which makes learning the dynamics of systems challenging. In this work, we propose to combine data-driven modeling via operator inference with the dynamic training via roll outs of neural ordinary differential equations. Operator inference with roll outs inherits interpretability, scalability, and structure preservation of traditional operator inference while leveraging the dynamic training via roll outs over multiple time steps to increase stability and robustness for learning from low-quality and noisy data. Numerical experiments with data describing shallow water waves and surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics demonstrate that operator inference with roll outs provides predictive models from training trajectories even if data are sampled sparsely in time and polluted with noise of up to 10%.

Brain-inspired computing proposes a set of algorithmic principles that hold promise for advancing artificial intelligence. They endow systems with self learning capabilities, efficient energy usage, and high storage capacity. A core concept that lies at the heart of brain computation is sequence learning and prediction. This form of computation is essential for almost all our daily tasks such as movement generation, perception, and language. Understanding how the brain performs such a computation is not only important to advance neuroscience but also to pave the way to new technological brain-inspired applications. A previously developed spiking neural network implementation of sequence prediction and recall learns complex, high-order sequences in an unsupervised manner by local, biologically inspired plasticity rules. An emerging type of hardware that holds promise for efficiently running this type of algorithm is neuromorphic hardware. It emulates the way the brain processes information and maps neurons and synapses directly into a physical substrate. Memristive devices have been identified as potential synaptic elements in neuromorphic hardware. In particular, redox-induced resistive random access memories (ReRAM) devices stand out at many aspects. They permit scalability, are energy efficient and fast, and can implement biological plasticity rules. In this work, we study the feasibility of using ReRAM devices as a replacement of the biological synapses in the sequence learning model. We implement and simulate the model including the ReRAM plasticity using the neural simulator NEST. We investigate the effect of different device properties on the performance characteristics of the sequence learning model, and demonstrate resilience with respect to different on-off ratios, conductance resolutions, device variability, and synaptic failure.

Accurate and consistent vehicle localization in urban areas is challenging due to the large-scale and complicated environments. In this paper, we propose onlineFGO, a novel time-centric graph-optimization-based localization method that fuses multiple sensor measurements with the continuous-time trajectory representation for vehicle localization tasks. We generalize the graph construction independent of any spatial sensor measurements by creating the states deterministically on time. As the trajectory representation in continuous-time enables querying states at arbitrary times, incoming sensor measurements can be factorized on the graph without requiring state alignment. We integrate different GNSS observations: pseudorange, deltarange, and time-differenced carrier phase (TDCP) to ensure global reference and fuse the relative motion from a LiDAR-odometry to improve the localization consistency while GNSS observations are not available. Experiments on general performance, effects of different factors, and hyper-parameter settings are conducted in a real-world measurement campaign in Aachen city that contains different urban scenarios. Our results show an average 2D error of 0.99m and consistent state estimation in urban scenarios.

This article focuses on the control center of each human body: the brain. We will point out the pivotal role of the cerebral vasculature and how its complex mechanisms may vary between subjects. We then emphasize a specific acute pathological state, i.e., acute ischemic stroke, and show how medical imaging and its analysis can be used to define the treatment. We show how the core-penumbra concept is used in practice using mismatch criteria and how machine learning can be used to make predictions of the final infarct, either via deconvolution or convolutional neural networks.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have outperformed other NLP models on a wide range of tasks. Opting for a more thorough understanding of their capabilities and inner workings, researchers have established the extend to which they capture lower-level knowledge like grammaticality, and mid-level semantic knowledge like factual understanding. However, there is still little understanding of their knowledge of higher-level aspects of language. In particular, despite the importance of sociodemographic aspects in shaping our language, the questions of whether, where, and how PLMs encode these aspects, e.g., gender or age, is still unexplored. We address this research gap by probing the sociodemographic knowledge of different single-GPU PLMs on multiple English data sets via traditional classifier probing and information-theoretic minimum description length probing. Our results show that PLMs do encode these sociodemographics, and that this knowledge is sometimes spread across the layers of some of the tested PLMs. We further conduct a multilingual analysis and investigate the effect of supplementary training to further explore to what extent, where, and with what amount of pre-training data the knowledge is encoded. Our overall results indicate that sociodemographic knowledge is still a major challenge for NLP. PLMs require large amounts of pre-training data to acquire the knowledge and models that excel in general language understanding do not seem to own more knowledge about these aspects.

Fairness and environmental impact are important research directions for the sustainable development of artificial intelligence. However, while each topic is an active research area in natural language processing (NLP), there is a surprising lack of research on the interplay between the two fields. This lacuna is highly problematic, since there is increasing evidence that an exclusive focus on fairness can actually hinder environmental sustainability, and vice versa. In this work, we shed light on this crucial intersection in NLP by (1) investigating the efficiency of current fairness approaches through surveying example methods for reducing unfair stereotypical bias from the literature, and (2) evaluating a common technique to reduce energy consumption (and thus environmental impact) of English NLP models, knowledge distillation (KD), for its impact on fairness. In this case study, we evaluate the effect of important KD factors, including layer and dimensionality reduction, with respect to: (a) performance on the distillation task (natural language inference and semantic similarity prediction), and (b) multiple measures and dimensions of stereotypical bias (e.g., gender bias measured via the Word Embedding Association Test). Our results lead us to clarify current assumptions regarding the effect of KD on unfair bias: contrary to other findings, we show that KD can actually decrease model fairness.